A new report issued by the International Energy Agency (IEA) points out that by 2050, global electricity demand from air conditioners is expected to triple, requiring the equivalent of the current combined power capacity of the United States, the European Union and Japan.
According to IEA's new analysis, the increasing use of air conditioners worldwide will become one of the main drivers of global electricity demand in the next three decades. The report emphasizes the urgent need for policy actions to improve cooling efficiency.
The newly released "Cooling the Future" report pointed out that if there is no new efficiency standard, the world will face a "cold current" of increasing cooling energy consumption in the coming decades.
According to the report, by 2050, the number of global air conditioners will increase from the current 1.6 billion to 5.6 billion, which means that 10 new air conditioners will be sold every second for the next 30 years.
The use of air conditioners and electric fans to keep cool has accounted for about one-fifth of the world's total electricity consumption in buildings, or 10% of the current global electricity consumption. However, as incomes and living standards in many developing countries increase, demand for air-conditioning in hotter areas will soar. Air-conditioning is expected to become the second largest source of growth in global electricity demand after the industrial sector, and the strongest driving force for the construction industry by 2050.
Powering these air conditioners will bring huge costs and environmental impacts. A key factor is that the efficiency of these new air conditioners may vary greatly. For example, air conditioners sold in Japan and the European Union are generally 25% more efficient than those sold in the United States and China. Through mandatory energy standards, energy efficiency improvements can halve the energy growth of air conditioning demand.
"The increasing demand for electricity from air conditioners is one of the most critical blind spots in today's energy debate." IEA Executive Director Birol said, "As income increases, the number of air conditioners will increase significantly, especially in emerging countries, although this It will bring extra comfort and improve daily life, but it is important to prioritize the efficiency performance of the air conditioner."
The report identified key policy actions. In an efficient cooling scheme that meets the Paris climate goals, IEA found that through strict minimum energy efficiency standards and other measures, the average energy efficiency of global air conditioners can more than double from now to 2050, which will greatly reduce the construction of new power infrastructure To meet the growing demand.
Making cooling more efficient will also bring multiple benefits, making it more affordable, safer, more sustainable, and saving $2.9 trillion in investment, fuel, and operating costs. In the hot regions of the world, the rising demand for cooling is particularly important.
The report pointed out: "At present, less than one-third of households in the world have air conditioners. In countries such as the United States and Japan, more than 90% of households have air conditioners. In contrast, only 28% of households in the most popular areas in the world have air conditioners. "
This issue is particularly sensitive in the fastest-growing countries, with the largest growth seen in hot countries like India. If no action is taken, India’s air-conditioning peak power load may account for 45% by 2050, compared to 10% today. Therefore, a large amount of investment in new power plants is required to meet the peak power demand at night, which is not possible with solar photovoltaic technology.
"Setting a higher cooling efficiency standard is one of the simplest measures the government can take to reduce the demand for new power plants, while allowing reduced emissions and lower costs." Birol added.
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