LED lighting outlook: What is the price and efficiency trend? What is the problem?



How will LED lighting, which has received much attention, develop in the future? On October 28, 2009, at the "Green Device 2009 Forum" held at the "Green Device 2009" exhibition held at the Yokohama Convention and Exhibition Center in the Pacific, Panasonic, Toshiba lighting technology and other lighting equipment manufacturers, industry group LED The Lighting Promotion Conference (JLEDS) expressed their respective views.

The first JLEDS planning and operation committee chairperson, Mr. Chengfu, stressed that there is a gap between the expectations of LED lighting and the current strength of LED lighting. To promote the popularity of LED lighting, we must solve the problem on the premise of recognizing the gap. The warnings are that the current regulations and standards related to LEDs are still not perfect, and products with hidden dangers of safety and quality may flow into the market.

Among them, LED lighting fixtures that replace existing light sources such as "home hanging fluorescent lamp appliances", "incandescent lighting appliances, and discharge lamp appliances" are particularly required to be noted. This is because there is currently no standard for fluorescent tube type LED lamps that replace fluorescent lamps, and manufacturers have differences in standards and performances such as brightness, power consumption, and light distribution. In the speech, I introduced the report that the performance of the current fluorescent-type LED lamps disclosed by the US Department of Energy is lower than that of fluorescent lamps, which cannot be used as a substitute, and the products of the Japanese Bulb Industry Association for some products with low input power are lower than fluorescent lamps. Some products with a lamp weight exceeding 500g have a report of hidden dangers of the appliance. It is expected that Japan will complete the formulation of regulations in the next two to three years. Before the regulations are perfected, JLEDS will urge the franchisees to abide by the social consensus and relevant regulations.

In addition, the following also lists the issues that consumers should pay attention to when purchasing LED lighting that is known as “energy saving than fluorescent lamps”. That is to say, it is fully confirmed that the purchased fluorescent lamp is the latest Hf type, or the original copper-iron ballast type. At present, in terms of the overall efficiency of the lighting fixture, the Hf type is about 100 lm/W, and the copper-iron ballast type is 60 lm/W. The difference between the two is large, and the LED illumination is centered at 80 lm /W.

White LED efficiency has risen sharply in the past 1 to 2 years.

Then came Delifufu, the director of the LED component development center of Matsushita Electric Lighting Business. Dali said that the improvement of the luminous efficiency of white LEDs used in LED lighting is very obvious, and the progress in the recent one to two years is particularly remarkable. Although the value is close to 100 lm/W, it still does not exceed the Hf-type fluorescent lamp in terms of LED lighting fixtures. When a lighting fixture is assembled using a white LED, the overall efficiency (comprehensive efficiency) of the lighting fixture is about the illumination of the white LED under the influence of the power conversion loss of the power supply circuit, the decrease in the luminous efficiency caused by the temperature rise and the input of the large current, and the optical loss in the appliance. 50 to 70% efficiency, even with the latest white LED can only reach about 80%.

The luminous efficiency will continue to increase in the future. It is predicted that LED lighting fixtures with integrated efficiency beyond Hf-type fluorescent lamps will be available from 2010 to 2015. "At that time, LEDs will truly become the illumination of efficiency No.1." For the still expensive cost, Da Li said that the price of LED lighting will be more moderate from 2011 to 2012, when the unit brightness cost of white LED is less than 1 yen/lm. The large cost reduction of white LEDs used in the formation of liquid crystal panel backlights will be the driving force behind the decline in white LED costs.

Da Li also talked about the outlook for organic EL lighting. Organic EL lighting has the advantage of a surface light source and is suitable as a main illumination such as a ceiling light. There is a complementary relationship with the point source light source facing the spotlight. Although the current development is “3 to 5 years behind” (large profit) than LED, Dali predicts that by 2015 to 2020, the efficiency of organic EL illumination will be equal to or higher than that of Hf fluorescent lamps. If the cost is not higher than the LED, then the opportunity for organic EL as the main illumination will equal or even exceed the LED. It is speculated that the LED lighting will be applied to the main lighting first, but with the development of organic EL lighting, the adoption of organic EL lighting will gradually increase from around 2020.

Dali also made predictions about the potential of lighting power reduction technology around 2020. If you take the current lighting power consumption as 100, then switching to the most efficient lighting fixtures now can reduce the power consumption to 70. By 2020, with the expansion of more efficient LED lighting and organic EL lighting applications, as well as lighting configuration optimization and implementation of light distribution control, power consumption is expected to be reduced to 50.

What is the suggested retail price for LED lighting in 2015?

The last appearance was Toshiyuki Sato, LED Planning Director of Toshiba Lighting Technology LED Division. Sato introduced the company's LED lighting equipment price forecast and its most efficient LED bulbs, which were listed in October 2009.

Sato said that the suggested retail price per unit of LED lighting fixtures published in June 2009 was around 20 yen/lm, which is about four times that of lighting fixtures using Hf-type fluorescent lamps. The price gap is large, but by 2015, The price will be lowered to a level slightly higher than that of the Hf-type fluorescent lamp, and the overall efficiency will also reach 120-130 lm/W, which greatly exceeds the Hf-type fluorescent lamp. By then, the willingness of consumers to adopt LED lighting will increase. Even so, the price of Hf-type fluorescent lighting fixtures is still lower than that of LED lighting fixtures. Therefore, Hf-type fluorescent lighting fixtures will not disappear from the market.

Regarding LED bulbs, Sato said that the efficiency of LED bulbs has developed rapidly. When Toshiba Lighting Technology released the LED bulb in 2006, the overall luminous efficiency of the LED bulb was only 18 lm/W, which could only replace the decorative bulb. After that, the efficiency of LED bulbs gradually increased to 45lm/W in 2007 and 68lm/W in 2008, which can be used as a bulb for spotlighting. In 2008, 82lm/W and 93lm/W in October reached Replace the level of light bulbs for general lighting.

The realization of the 93lm/W LED bulb is largely due to three improvements: a dedicated white LED module packaged in CoB (chip on board); miniaturization of the power supply circuit; improved heat dissipation by optimizing the heat sink and improving the sealing of the LED module. The LED module of the CoB package has a plurality of LED chips mounted on the substrate. After the blue chip is mounted, wiring is formed by wire bonding, and then the phosphor material is coated and packaged as a white LED. The use of multiple chips not only improves brightness, but also helps achieve optimal configuration of the LED chip, reducing the amount of input current to a single LED chip to ensure high efficiency. Moreover, the power conversion efficiency of the power supply circuit is less than 90%, and the luminous efficiency of the white LED module of the CoB package is 103 to 105 lm/W.

In addition, Sato also showed the power saving effect of using LED lighting. If all existing lighting is changed to LED lighting, lighting power consumption is expected to be reduced by about half. (Reporter: Okubo Satoshi)

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