"If the division of the territory has been over for centuries, the distribution of environmental resources and the political game have just begun." Fu Zhizhen, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, said in the "China Engineering Management Forum·2009" sponsored by the Chinese Academy of Engineering.
Fu Zhizhen believes that climate change has evolved into an international political issue. The essence of climate negotiations is to allocate scarce greenhouse gas atmospheric capacity resources. Facing the current international situation and domestic development situation, Fu Zhisheng pointed out that China must take the road of low carbon economy.
Wei Fusheng, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and a researcher at the China National Environmental Monitoring Center, pointed out that while China's economy is developing rapidly and its comprehensive national strength is significantly enhanced, it is believed that due to excessive resource consumption and environmental pollution, China's total environmental pollution discharge has exceeded the environmental carrying capacity. force. China must implement the strategic transformation of the environment-economic development, transform the extensive economic growth mode, and save energy and reduce emissions, including the path of lowering the carbon economy.
An international political game
Climate change is undisputed. Over the past 100 years, the global average surface temperature has risen by 0.74 ° C. Climate change has caused glacial retreat, sea level rise, flooding, and agricultural production. If the temperature rises above 2.5 °C, all regions of the world may be adversely affected; heating up to 4 °C may cause irreversible damage to the global ecosystem.
Since the industrial revolution, global concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) have increased significantly due to human activities. At present, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased from 280 ppm before industrialization to 385 ppm.
At present, countries are adopting different measures to deal with climate change. For example, European countries are vigorously developing new energy industries and regard low-carbon industries as new economic growth points. In the next 10 years, the United States will invest 150 billion US dollars to develop new energy, and plans to double the production of new energy in three years. Japan will increase the proportion of new energy power generation to 10% by 2012 and to 25% by 2025. Brazil is currently a world leader in biofuel technology. India is also actively working to invest in wind and solar energy to expand the scope of greening.
More striking is that "climate change has become a means of international political game." Fu Zhisheng said. The EU has made climate change a major foreign policy and has emerged as a pressure on climate change; the United States has adjusted the Bush administration’s original policy, claiming to be a country leading clean energy development; and developing countries with large populations Suffering from the effects of climate change will inevitably increase energy consumption and put a lot of pressure on it; island countries are worried about rising sea levels, leading to disappearing from the map and calling for more stringent emission reduction targets.
In the face of this fierce international political game, the most controversial among countries is who should bear more responsibility for reducing emissions. Fu Zhizhen believes that in order to adhere to the "common but differentiated responsibilities" proposed by the UN Climate Change Convention, developed countries should assume more historical responsibilities.
Fu Zhisheng said that from the beginning of the industrial revolution to 1950, the CO2 released by the burning of fossil fuels accounted for 95% of the developed countries; from 1950 to 2000, the emissions of developed countries still accounted for 77% of the total emissions. From the history of 1850 to the history of 150 years in 2004, from the cumulative emissions of major countries, the United States emits several times more CO2 than other countries. Therefore, emission reduction is the primary responsibility of developed countries. For developing countries, measures should be taken to mitigate climate change while developing the economy.
"Climate change is not just an environmental issue, but also a development issue." Fu Zhizhen believes that without the economic development of developing countries, it will not only achieve the goal of human beings to cope with climate change, but also affect the prosperity and stability of the world. It is neither realistic nor fair to require them to undertake mandatory quantitative emission reduction obligations at this stage. Unlike developed countries, the priority goal of developing countries should be to develop the economy, improve their living standards, and reduce emissions.
Fu Zhizhen suggested that it is reasonable to determine the responsibility of each country according to the cumulative per capita emissions, because it can take into account both historical and realistic factors.
Low carbon economy is an inevitable trend
When talking about how to reduce emissions, both Fu Zhisheng and Wei Fusheng mentioned the concept of a low-carbon economy.
Wei Fusheng said that in the 30 years of reform and opening up, China's economy has developed rapidly and its comprehensive national strength has increased significantly. The national GDP has increased by about 60 times. However, COD (chemical oxygen demand), SO2 and total mercury have also reached the top in the world. The CO2 emissions rank second in the world, second only to the United States.
"If we pay too much for the consumption of resources and environmental pollution at a constant price, a large amount of foreign trade exports drive economic growth, we become the world's factories - the resources and environment are exported, and the resources are left in the country. A lot of consumption and environmental pollution. The total amount of environmental pollution has exceeded the environmental carrying capacity." Wei Fusheng pointed out. Therefore, we must implement a strategic transformation of environmental-economic development, transform the extensive economic growth mode, and save energy and reduce emissions, including the development of a low-carbon economy.
So, what exactly is a low carbon economy?
“The low-carbon economy is an economic form that deals with greenhouse gas emissions and responds to climate warming,†said Fu Zhisheng. The two words that have something in common with the low carbon economy are the circular economy and the green economy. However, the circular economy emphasizes resource conservation and full utilization in the production, circulation, and consumption processes; the green economy is an environmentally friendly economic model that embraces the circular economy and the low-carbon economy. In contrast, the low-carbon economy highlights the focus of tackling climate change, or it is conducive to concentrating efforts to seize strategic opportunities, occupying the commanding heights of future development, and at the same time better embodying China's attitude toward climate change. Very useful for establishing China's international image.
The low-carbon economy includes low-carbon development, low-carbon industries, low-carbon technologies, and low-carbon life. Fu Zhizhen believes that the core of low-carbon economy is the change of technological innovation, institutional innovation and development concept. The development of low-carbon economy is a revolution involving production patterns, lifestyles and values.
It has been suggested that the "low-carbon economy" may be a trap set by Western countries. Fu Zhizhen believes that emissions directly correspond to the right to economic development, and the new rules will be more detrimental to the economic and social development of developing countries. A low-carbon economy is an inevitable trend of development and will have a profound impact on the world.
"Will it fall into the trap set by the developed countries, not because of the name, but because our minds are sober, we must pay attention to its drawbacks, and at the same time we must overcome difficulties and accelerate the pace of development in our country." Fu Zhisheng said that in the future In the 10 to 20 years, there is a possibility of a revolution in green technology and industry. Once developed countries take the lead in making breakthroughs in low-carbon technologies, the industrial technology gap between us and developed countries is likely to expand from generation to generation. China's existing large-scale equipment is in danger of being quickly obsolete, and huge investment may be possible. Become a sunk cost.
"China, as a late-developing country, is still climbing the load. Even if it is a little lax, it may fall behind again. Therefore, we must take action and not miss the opportunity." Fu Zhisheng said.
Do a good job in three links to promote the development of low-carbon economy
Although as a developing country, it is not necessary to fulfill the mandatory emission reduction obligations, but China has taken the initiative to adopt a series of energy-saving and emission reduction measures. In the past 15 years, China's carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions per unit of GDP have decreased by 4.9% annually, while the United States and Germany have 1.7% and 2.7%. According to the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" of the Chinese government, the energy consumption per unit of GDP will be reduced by 20% in five years, and 620 million tons of standard coal can be saved, equivalent to 1.5 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions, which is the largest in national emission reduction plans.
However, I have to admit that there are many constraints to China's development of a low-carbon economy. Fu Zhisheng said that on the one hand, from the perspective of China's energy endowment, the energy structure of “lean oil, less gas, and more coal†has determined that China has many difficulties in taking a low carbon development path. On the other hand, from the perspective of China's development process, China is in the process of industrialization and urbanization. The per capita energy consumption is far lower than that of the United States. A large part of the total emissions is to ensure the survival of people's basic living. The reduced space is small. In addition, because high-energy products are produced by developing countries, they are exported to developed countries. China is under pressure from international emissions.
Fu Zhizhen believes that there are three important links in the development of a low-carbon economy: the energy supply chain is mainly to optimize the energy structure and develop clean energy; the energy demand link is mainly to improve energy efficiency and reduce energy consumption; the end treatment link is mainly to promote afforestation. Develop carbon capture and storage technologies and strengthen carbon sink construction.
Wei Fusheng proposed that low-carbon industries should be developed, mainly in the information industry, microelectronics industry, and tertiary industries with low energy consumption. Secondly, through afforestation, planting grass and carbon sequestration, the forest with 1 cubic meter of woodwood reserves can absorb 1.83 tons of CO2 and release 1.62 tons of O2 per year. The carbon sink transaction price is about 30 euros / ton. At present, China's forests have increased from 14% to 18%, and will reach 23% by 2020. In addition, we must develop high-tech CO2, such as rare earth catalyzed production of CO2 copolymers instead of plastics.
"To cope with climate change, the arrival of the low-carbon era is irreversible, and low-carbon development will give birth to new economic growth points, which will become a powerful force for the development of the world economy. We must act positively to meet new challenges." Fu Zhisheng said.
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