New energy is favorable

In late August 2014, the policy of the new energy industry continued to heat up.

On August 27, the State Council Executive Meeting decided to start construction of a number of wind power, hydropower, photovoltaic power generation and coastal nuclear power projects; on August 22nd, the National Energy Administration announced the National Offshore Wind Power Development and Construction Program (2014-2016), involving 44 A total of more than 10 GW installed capacity for offshore wind projects.

At the same time, semi-annual reports of new energy listed companies have been issued. The sales and profit margins of most companies have generally increased by double digits, and the growth rate of many companies has exceeded 100%.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology judged that in the first half of 2014, China's photovoltaic industry mainly showed that the overall production and operation of enterprises was positive, the industrial scale continued to grow, the foreign trade situation gradually recovered, the industry’s technological level continued to rise, the unorderly development trend slowed, and the application market entered an adjustment phase. Wait for the trend.

It is widely expected in the industry that in the second half of 2014, China's installed capacity of wind power, photovoltaic and other new energy industries will show a jump growth. Brokers suggest that investors can pay attention to leading companies in the sub-sectors of new energy.

The policy favors frequent occurrences

In late August, favorable policies for the new energy industry were frequently introduced.

On August 27, the executive meeting of the State Council decided to begin construction of a batch of wind power, hydropower, photovoltaic power generation and coastal nuclear power projects.

On August 22nd, the National Energy Administration announced the “National Offshore Wind Power Development and Construction Plan (2014-2016)”, involving 44 offshore wind power projects with a total of more than 10GW installed capacity.

On August 20, the Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission issued the "Guangdong Province Solar Photovoltaic Power Generation Development Plan (2014-2020)". It is planned that by 2015, the installed photovoltaic power generation capacity will reach more than 1 million kilowatts; by 2020, it will strive to reach 4 million kilowatts or more. . Corresponding to this, on August 21st, Foshan City, Guangdong Province issued a distributed photovoltaic power plant incentive and subsidy scheme, and eligible power station owners will receive a one-time incentive and electric power subsidy.

Within a week, the introduction of new energy support policies was seldom seen in history. Partly affected by this, the A shares of new energy sector rose by 3.16% in the past two weeks, of which photovoltaic and wind power rose by 4.19% and 2.20% respectively. The general stock of overseas new energy also rose generally.

The PV industry continued its upward trend in the second half of last year. Data show that in the first half of the year, China's polysilicon production was 62,000 tons, an increase of 100% year-on-year; wafer production was 18GW, up 20% year-on-year; and battery module production was 15.5GW, an increase of 34.8% year-on-year. The total output value of the photovoltaic industry exceeds 150 billion yuan. The export volume of major photovoltaic products was approximately US$8.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%.

The news from the EU, where China's photovoltaic products are exported, is also encouraging.

On August 22, the European Trade Commission said in an interview with PV-Tech that it will not implement the allegations submitted by EU ProSun and SolarWorld to show evidence of violations of EU and China price commitments.

The company's performance continues to improve

According to the semi-annual reports of listed companies that have been announced in succession, the income and profits of new energy companies have continued to rise.

After experiencing a downturn for more than a year, the entire wind power enterprises not only turned losses into profits, but also achieved higher profits.

In the first half of 2014, wind power machine leading gold wind technology achieved operating revenue of 4.471 billion yuan, an increase of 37.74% over the same period of the previous year. Net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 3,307,916,000, an increase of 256.80% over the same period of the previous year.

In the first half of 2014, Huayi Electric realized an operating income of 8,286,722,200 yuan, an increase of 52.64% over the same period of the previous year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 74.007 million yuan, an increase of 1508.26% over the same period of last year.

Shanghai Electric issued an external investment announcement and entered into a subscription agreement with Hong Kong and Lisheng Group, agreeing that Hong Kong Electrical Appliances purchased a convertible bond issued by Lisheng Group for HK$700 million.

The transaction will help Shanghai Electric to give priority to the cooperation opportunities of Lisen Group's domestic and international photovoltaic power station project construction under the same conditions and promote the development of Shanghai Electric's business.

Although photovoltaic manufacturers did not fully recover their profits, their losses have further narrowed with the surge in shipments.

On August 27, the semi-annual report released by Yingli Green Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. showed that, in the second quarter, Yingli PV module shipments were 667.9MW, a sharp increase of 40.7% from the previous quarter, and the revenue was US$549.5 million, an increase of 21.9% from the previous quarter and the net loss was reduced from the previous month. About 14% to 46 million US dollars.

Among the 11 photovoltaic companies that have reported half-yearly reports, there have been 6 growth in net profit, and there have been 9 growth in revenues. 11 companies had revenue of 11.043 billion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 91% year-on-year.

The performance of wind power and photovoltaic components companies is equally beautiful.

Photovoltaic inverter company KSTAR reached an operating income of 584 million yuan in the first half of 2014, an increase of 36.61% from the same period last year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 61,109,000 yuan, an increase of 40.74% over the same period of last year.

In the first half of 2014, wind power tower company Taisheng Wind Power realized an operating income of 521 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.44%, and a net profit of 51.4464 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.59%.

In the case of a sharp increase in demand, wind turbine manufacturers have improved their payment methods for blade manufacturers. At the same time, purchase prices have also been raised. The spot price of blades has risen by about 10% compared with the beginning of the year. Sinoma Technology is the largest fan blade manufacturer in the A-share market. The fan blades last year was the company’s largest source of profits. In the lower reaches of the new energy industry, compared with manufacturing companies, the performance of power plants has grown less.

In the first half of 2014, China Wind Power realized revenue of HK$1,194 million, an increase of 174% year-on-year, and net profit of HK$122.6 million, a year-on-year increase of 219%.

Longyuan Power obtained operating revenue of RMB 8.987 billion in the first half of the year, of which sales of wind power and other revenues were RMB 5.610 billion, up 9.6% year-on-year; realized pre-tax profit RMB 2.176 billion, and net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 13.65 Billion yuan.

Although the performance of photovoltaic companies is not as eye-catching as wind power, the price of products is on the rise. As a result, individual companies start to make profits. As of the end of June 2014, the average price of polysilicon rose by 29.3% year-on-year, and the average price of components rose by 7.3%. The number of polysilicon production enterprises increased from 7 at the beginning of last year to 16 and many backbone battery companies turned losses into profits. The company realizes continued profitability.

In the case of rising prices, the energy consumption and conversion efficiency of photovoltaic companies have gradually declined. According to statistics, the average overall energy consumption for polysilicon production and silicon consumption per watt of batteries have dropped by about 10% from last year respectively. The average conversion efficiency of the monocrystalline and polycrystalline cells of backbone enterprises increased from 18.8% and 17.3% to 19.3% and 17.8%, respectively; the investment cost of photovoltaic power generation systems decreased from about 10 yuan/watt to less than 9 yuan/watt.

The second half of the installed capacity is expected to jump

Although new energy companies performed well in the first half of this year, the installation targets set at the beginning of the year were not satisfactory.

Taking the photovoltaic industry as an example, the target at the beginning of the year was 13GW, but in the first half of the year, the domestic PV market decreased significantly compared with the previous period. The newly installed grid-connected PV installed capacity was about 3.3GW, of which about 1GW was distributed, and there was still a long distance from the installed target. The main factor is that the integration and policies have not yet been fully implemented. In particular, the residential photovoltaic market has not really started.

The layout of wind power installations is mainly from non-power-restricted areas such as the Three North region to the south. In 2014, the installed capacity of wind power was 18 million kilowatts. Currently, there is no statistics on the newly installed capacity.

In terms of offshore wind power, it is expected that the 1.75 million-kilowatt project that has been approved will start construction in the second half of this year and the first half of next year. The remaining projects will also be completed one after another in the next three years, providing a new increase for the market demand for wind power in the next three years.

However, how long this sustained recovery can last, there is no uniform caliber. The news from the International Energy Agency (IEA) is not optimistic.

The IEA expects that by the end of this decade, global renewable energy production will increase by 45%. However, it warned at the same time that the uncertainty in policies and market structure is hampering the pace of development and posing an increasing threat to the sector.