Thermal power company's loss "pressure hill"

With the economic growth slowing down, the demand for electricity has been greatly reduced, and there has even been a relative surplus of electricity. In the case of under-employment and high inventory, thermal power companies have not tasted too much of the sweetness of the decline in coal prices. On the contrary, they have to continue to face the dilemma of higher asset-liability ratios and unprofitable losses.

Experts believe that the reduction of electricity consumption gap has become an inevitable trend, but with the improvement of the economic situation in the second half of the year, local power supply pressure will continue to exist, but then coal prices may also rise, the operating environment of power companies will hardly be improved. .

Loss of thermal power business "pressure hill"

The high stocks of coal that were in demand from the past have now become troubled by power generation companies.

“Because of the lack of coal in May last year, only a small part of the power plant was running. At the time, the stock of power coal in the warehouse was very poor, but this year's power coal stocks were overwhelming. This year's rainfall was high, and the water flow from the rivers was very high. Well, with the large hydropower projects, coupled with the reduction in electricity demand, thermal power can only be suspended, but coal is still being transported in an endless stream. We see the daily increase in coal stocks, and we are under great pressure.” A local Hunan power plant The person in charge said in an interview with the "Economic Information Daily" reporter.

It is understood that 35 units of 300,000 kilowatt-class or more thermal power units in the province of Hunan have only recently opened nine units, the operating rate is about 25%, and at the least, only six units have been opened. CPI's Jidong Power Plant is located in Guizhou, but the power supply is basically for Hunan. It has been suspended for nearly two months. Seven of the 12 main thermal power plants are basically in shutdown.

The lack of operating rate has greatly reduced the consumption of coal, and power plant inventory continues to rise. In early June, Hunan thermal power plant stored nearly 6 million tons of coal, which can be used for 50 days at full-load power generation of power plants. In the same period of last year, the coal stock was only about 1 million tons, and it can guarantee about 1 week of coal for power generation.

The fact that power generation companies have high inventory and underemployment has also been confirmed in other provinces and cities. By May 30th, 43 sets of more than 200,000 kilowatts of thermal power units in Hubei Province had only opened 18 units, and the number of units started at this time last year was 29 units.

"The current operating rate of the company's thermal power units is about 65%. Coal stocks available days are about 30 days. Last year was about 20 days. We also want to open more, but not so much electricity." The reporter told reporters that the coal prices purchased in the previous period were high. Because the thermal power generators could not generate electricity at full capacity, stocks could not be digested as quickly as possible and low-priced coal could not be purchased. Therefore, the decline in coal prices since May has not allowed companies to taste too much sweetness. Instead, due to high inventory levels and underemployment, corporate debt ratios have risen, and losses have been difficult to reverse.

According to the Hunan Provincial Electric Supervisory Office, in 2011, the five major power generation groups suffered multiple losses in Hunan and the liabilities were high. Among them, Huadian’s asset-liability ratio in Hunan was 109.77%, Guodian’s asset-liability ratio in Hunan was 109.51%, and CLP and Datang. The debt ratio of Huaneng was about 90%. Since the beginning of this year, the financial operation of Hunan's thermal power companies is still not good, and the asset-liability ratio has continued to rise. From January to April, thermal power companies in the province have lost about 470 million yuan. From the situation in May and June, the demand for electricity in Hunan is difficult to improve, and the water supply from hydropower continues to improve. The decrease in thermal power generation will further aggravate the financial management dilemma of thermal power companies.

Power companies in Gansu Province also have similar operating pressures. In 2011, the debt ratio of 94 utility power generation enterprises in Gansu Province reached 81.15%, and the total profit realized was -382 million yuan. This situation has not been significantly improved this year, in which the wind power industry is the first time there has been a total loss.

The loss of power generation companies is not an example. According to data from WInd, as of June 12th, a total of 11 companies in the power industry announced the 2012 semi-annual report performance forecast, with a loss of over 70% of the company. Among them, Wuyuan Power suffered a loss for the first time. It is estimated that the net profit loss for the first half of 2012 will be 72 million yuan to 77 million yuan, a year-on-year drop of 604.1%, while Changyuan Power’s largest loss in the first half will be 140 million yuan to 185 million yuan. In addition, both Celebrity Power and SDIC Electric are expected to reduce their performance in the first half of the year, and its investment in China said that compared with the same period of last year, profits will drop by more than 50%.

Another statistic shows that the listed company's asset-liability ratio in the power industry has been at the forefront of various industries. The first quarter of 2012 was as high as 73.18%, and the 2011 debt ratio was 71.85%.

Reasons Economic slowdown caused electricity "surplus"

The main reason for the continuing losses of power generation companies is the "overcapacity" under the slowdown of economic growth. “The decline in electricity demand is affected by the economic situation. The current state policy has not yet been fully implemented. The degree of economic recovery has lagged behind some of the original imagination. The total power demand growth is declining, and there is a relative surplus of electricity and the company’s power generation efficiency. It has a relatively large impact,” said Hu Zhaoguang, vice president of the National Grid Energy Research Institute.

It is understood that due to the relatively cool weather and the relatively slow economic growth, the demand for electricity is still low everywhere. According to an insider in Hunan's electric power industry, Hunan Province's unified call power consumption decreased by 1% from January to May, of which electricity use in the province rose by -0.88% in April, increased by -9.6% in May, and was expected to reach -6.9% in June.

"The province's electricity consumption has suddenly returned to the level of 2010." The above-mentioned sources believe that if deducting the fixed growth brought about by the urbanization process and social development, it can basically reflect the current decline in electricity consumption, which is mainly The electricity consumption of high-energy-consuming industries such as iron and steel, non-ferrous metals, and cement has decreased by a large margin. It has reduced the electricity load by 1 million, accounting for about 5% of the electricity used by related industries, and reflected the slowing down of economic development.

The use of electricity in the coastal province of Jiangsu is also not optimistic. The relevant people of the Development and Reform Commission told the "Economic Information Daily" reporter that in May of this year, the province's industrial electricity consumption was 304.44 billion kwh, only a slight increase of 2.36% year-on-year; of which light industry increased by 2.79%. From January to May, the province’s industrial accumulated electricity consumption was 139.379 billion kWh, an increase of 4.4% year-on-year. These data show that the province's economy has not yet shown signs of stabilization and recovery, and the industrial economy is still operating at a low level.

The reporter learned from the national summer development conference in 2012 held by the National Development and Reform Commission on the 11th summer television conference. According to the statistics of the industry, from January to May, the whole society used 1.96 trillion kWh of electricity, an increase of 5.8% year-on-year. 6.2 percentage points for the lower level in recent years. In terms of regions, there are 6 provinces and regions in the country with less than 3%. In May, there were 3 provinces, districts and cities with negative electricity growth. In terms of sub-sectors, the production of electricity for one production dropped by 4.17% year-on-year due to rainfall, and the growth rate of electricity for secondary production dropped by 8.4 percentage points, driving the growth rate of electricity consumption in the entire society to drop by 6.3 percentage points.

Previously, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that although the increase in industrial output in May was slightly faster than in April, it was still close to the lowest point in three years.

In addition, this year's hydropower comes in particularly large numbers, which further exacerbates the situation of “excess” power. It is understood that from January to May, cumulative rainfall in Hunan Province was more than 9% over the same period of the previous year, and large-scale hydropower stations generally stored more water. At one time they even abandoned water for flood discharge. Major hydropower companies started generating units at full capacity.

“This year’s hydropower situation is so good that the growth rate of hydropower in Fujian is almost 100%, and the policy also requires that hydropower be given priority. This makes the contradiction of supply exceeding demand even more prominent.” explains Xue Jing, a senior engineer at CEC. Say.

Forecasting the gap is shrinking but the pressure still exists The current situation of electricity consumption has not been expected to grow rapidly.

According to statistics from Guangdong Power Grid Corporation, by the end of May, Guangdong Province's overall adjustment of the maximum load reached 74.47 million kilowatts, an increase of 10.3%, and the province's power supply reached 39.6 billion kwh, an increase of 9.6% year-on-year; Guangdong's peak load demand is expected to be about 8700 this year. Million kilowatts, there will be about 5 million kilowatts of power gap. China Southern Power Grid Corporation expects Guangdong to have a power gap of 4 million to 6 million kilowatts during peak summer peak hours, which is lower than the 6 million to 10 million kilowatts of electricity load gap forecast at the beginning of the year.

Hubei Electric Power Company had previously estimated that the peak power gap in Hubei this year was 2.3 million kilowatts, but in the near future, the actual maximum gap may be relatively low, and the maximum electricity consumption gap estimated at the beginning of the year in Anhui was also reduced to 1 million kilowatts." It is estimated that the maximum power shortage this year will reach 30 million to 40 million kilowatts, and this premise is that there is a large area of ​​the country, continuing extremely hot weather, and low water quality. However, these two factors do not exist at present, considering the current electricity consumption. The situation, the actual gap may be much smaller in the future." Xue Jing pointed out.

However, the above-mentioned persons from the Jiangsu Development and Reform Commission believe that the power gap in Jiangsu Province has become smaller this summer, but regional and periodic power shortages still exist.

Hu Zhaoguang also judged that China's total electricity consumption growth trend this year should be low and high. With the introduction of various measures for steady growth, the government has gradually introduced and is in place. It is expected that the economy and electricity use will gradually turn for the better in the second half of the year. A large part of the size depends on the climate, so the power gap is sub-regional. With the economic recovery in some provinces gradually recovering, if there is a high temperature and less rain, there may be regional tension in electricity supply and demand.”

The meteorological department predicts that the number of high-temperature days in the five provinces of Eastern China, Jiangxi, and Sichuan-Chongqing this summer will be higher than the same period of normal year, and it may form a large area of ​​summer heat. It is expected that the country’s largest air-conditioning load will reach 180 million kilowatts, an increase of about 40 million kilowatts from last year.

According to preliminary estimates by the National Development and Reform Commission, during the summer peak season this year, the maximum daily electricity consumption may reach 15.5 billion to 16 billion kilowatt-hours, which is an increase of 3% to 6% from the peak value of the previous year. The peak national power gap is about 18 million kilowatts. Tight areas are mainly Zhejiang, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Hebei, Chongqing and other places. If there is an extreme situation such as sudden flooding during the flood season and excessively long duration of high-temperature and high-humidity weather, the power gap may further increase.

"At present, there is sufficient electricity coal stocks, and if there is a power gap, it is actually beneficial for thermal power companies." In order to make up for the power shortage, the grid company will pay the higher grid-connected electricity prices for power generation companies in summer, and according to the current coal price level. Thermal power companies have been able to achieve profitability. If there is a power shortage, it proves that the demand is strong and actually benefits thermal power companies.

It is worth noting that the central bank decided to reduce the one-year deposit and lending benchmark interest rate of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points since June 8. This rate cut is the first rate cut since the rate hike in 2008 and is expected to enter a new round of interest rate cuts. This is another good thing for the power industry that bears high debt.