China's three core component controllers, servo motors and reducers are the main bottlenecks restricting the Chinese robot industry, accounting for 70% of the cost of robots.
Controller
The controller has the smallest gap between home and abroad The controller is the brain of the robot, releasing and transmitting action instructions. Including hardware and software two parts: hardware is the industrial control board, including some main control unit, signal processing part and other circuits, domestic brands have mastered; software part is mainly control algorithm, secondary development, etc., domestic brands in stability, response There are still gaps in speed, ease of use, and so on.
The problem with controllers is that mature robot manufacturers generally develop controllers themselves to ensure stability and maintain the technical system because of their "neural center" status and relatively low threshold. Therefore, the market share of the controller is basically the same as that of the robot. Internationally, there are also vendors such as KEBA, Beckhoff, and B&R that provide the underlying platform for controllers. Therefore, in the current environment, domestic companies that develop controllers professionally will be more difficult.
The opportunity for controllers is standardization and openness. The existing closed structure of the robot controller brings disadvantages such as poor openness, poor software independence, poor fault tolerance, poor expandability, lack of network functions, and the like, and can no longer meet the requirements of intelligence and flexibility. The development of modular, standardized robot controllers, open to users at all levels is a development direction of robot controllers. China's 863 plan has also been established. The unification of the robot interface is a general trend, and a platform-type enterprise that provides controller modules may appear in the future.
In terms of market size, according to the 13th Five-Year Plan to 2020, the number of robots in China will be 800,000 units. Assuming that domestic robots account for 50% of the total, the controller price is 15,000 yuan, and the replacement and maintenance are counted. The market size of domestic controllers is 60. -70 billion yuan.
servo motor
The servo motor is highly competitive, and foreign capital has the right to speak. Servo motors are used as actuators in robots and are the main factors affecting the performance of robots. Servo motors are mainly divided into stepping, alternating current and direct current. The most widely used in the robot industry is AC servo, which accounts for about 65% of servo motors and controllers.
Foreign companies in the servo system have an absolute advantage. Japanese brands have monopolized the small and medium-sized OEM (equipment manufacturing) market with good product performance and competitive prices. In 2014, among the TOP15 vendors in the servo system market, the top three were Japanese brands with a total share of 45%. European brands such as Siemens, Bosch and Schneider occupy high-end, with an overall market share of around 30%. The overall share of domestic enterprises is less than 10%.
The self-supporting capability of China's servo system has taken shape. There are more than 20 large-scale servo brands. The power range of domestic products is more than 22KW, and the technical route is close to Japanese products. In terms of market size, in 2014, servo motors were 6.8 billion yuan in all application industries, with a growth rate of 8.3%; among them, robots increased by 50%, rapidly growing into the sixth-ranked industry in servo system applications, with 420 million. Performance, accounting for 6.2% of the market.
In the space of growth, the servo motor as a whole is significantly affected by the macro economy, and will enter a stable development in the next five years. The proportion of multi-joint robots with 4-axis and 6-axis increases, which will lead to a rapid increase in servos for robots. It is expected that during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the proportion of robotic servo systems will rise to the first place with a market size of 1.6 billion yuan.
The controller and servo system are closely related. The user-selected order is reliable, stable, price, and service. Starting from service and cost performance is the direction of domestic enterprises. However, this requires long-term and in-depth research in the field of motion control, a large amount of capital investment and long-term market verification, and high requirements for technology, capital and talents. Domestic listed companies such as Xinsong, Xinshida, Huichuan Technology, Guangzhou CNC Eston, etc. have similar conditions.
Reducer
The robot reducer market is highly monopolized, and the domestically produced reducer cannot achieve full import substitution during the popularization period. The reducer is used to precisely control the robot's movements and transmit more torque. Divided into two types, the RV reducer installed in the heavy load position such as the base, the boom and the shoulder, and the harmonic reducer installed in the light load position such as the arm, wrist or hand. The RV reducer is monopolized by Nabtesco, Japan, and the harmonic reducer Japan Hamernaco has an absolute advantage.
The structure of the harmonic reducer is relatively simple. There are only three basic components, and the patent of Hamernaco has already expired. The difference between the domestic harmonic reducer and foreign countries is not large. Wuxi Green's harmonic reducer has been widely used in domestic robots.
The core difficulty of RV reducers lies in basic industries and processes. RV reducers are purely mechanical precision components, materials, heat treatment processes and high precision machining machines are indispensable. China has long been lagging behind in these aspects, and it is not something that can be solved by a single enterprise alone. To combine more than 200 components, the accuracy is critical, and tolerance matching between components requires years of experience.
In terms of market size, according to the 2020 robotic capacity of 800,000 units, that is, an increase of about 600,000 units, a multi-joint industrial robot requires 4-6 speed reducers according to the number of axes, taking a median of 5, Then you need 3 million speed reducers. It is optimistic that domestic enterprises will gain 50% market share, and the calculation of a single reducer of 4,000 yuan will be 6 billion yuan, and the replacement demand will not exceed 7 billion yuan.
The price of the reducer is on a downward trend. Since Nabtesco's joint venture with Shanghai Electromechanical in 2013, the price of its RV reducer has gradually declined with the increase of international robotic capacity in China and the development of domestic robots. In 2016, the Changzhou plant will be put into production, and there will be further room for decline. According to the 2015 annual report of Shanghai Electromechanical, Nabo reducer revenue was 134 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.3%; net profit was 33.65 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.5%.
In summary, the three core components of China's industrial robots need to pay more patience and investment in order to achieve breakthroughs in essence, especially the speed reducer. The bigger the expectation, the greater the pressure, and the prospects are considerable. At the same time, China's industrial robotics talents are also very scarce.
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