Lin Wenbo: This year's semiconductor estimates increase 4-6%

Xie Pin (2325) chairman Lin Wenbo, who has enjoyed the reputation of the iron mouthpiece, said at the Law Conference today that the environment is not as bad as it has been imagined. At present, everyone has a conservative view of the semiconductor economy this year, and there are only 2-3 estimates. The annual growth rate of %, but he personally feel that there will be 4-6% of the room for growth, and the industry of packaging and testing will also be better than the overall semiconductor industry, but it will also be a year when volume increases and prices drop.

Lin Wenbo said that in 2011, the global economy ended in the unresolved debt crisis in Europe and the slow recovery of the U.S. economy. This year, the economy still has uncertainties, and the spending power of technology products has been suppressed, especially in developed countries. However, although the European debt problem still exists, the worst case is only this. Although the U.S. economy has been slow to recover, it still maintains the pace of recovery, and the U.S. will coincide with the presidential election. There will also be new economic stimulus packages. This year, it coincides with the Olympic year in London. In the emerging market, China has a population of 1.4 billion people and the potential for domestic demand is still open.

In addition, Lin Wenbo's recent news from major semiconductor manufacturers, TSMC (2330) said that the first quarter is not not bearish, signs of warming in communications and consumer electronics, while the two leading semiconductor fabs Intel, Samsung It also raises the capital expenditure this year. In addition, other IC companies pointed out that the inventory level has been low, and customer demand began to recover.

Therefore, Lin Wenbo stressed that the environment is not as bad as imagined. Semiconductor manufacturers and research institutes have released their conservative views on this year's semiconductor economy. They believe that there is only a 2-3% annual growth rate, but he believes that this year Industry should have a 4-6% growth, and the industry will be better than this figure.

Overall, Lin Wenbo believes that smart phones, tablet PCs and other industries will warm up in March and April, and the heat will continue into the third quarter. As far as the semiconductor industry is concerned, it will recover rapidly after the end of the first quarter. And the speed of recovery is expected to be stronger than expected. The second quarter will be better than the first quarter, and the outlook for the third quarter will not be negative.

However, Lin Wenbo also pointed out that this year will increase the price of the year down, in terms of the copper process, in the case of competitors in the case of price cuts last year, ASP really fell fierce, followed by other industries Will there be self-discipline?