From the introduction of personal computers by IBM in 1981 to today, PCs have been accompanied by human society for nearly 30 years. During these 30 years, the PC industry has benefited from improved PC performance and reduced prices through continuous technological innovation and market competition. It can be said that in the past 30 years, there is no technology that can have such a profound impact on the development process of human society as PC. In terms of influence, it is no exaggeration to call the past 30 years the PC era.
In these 30 years, people have felt the magical power of Moore's Law and also lamented Gordon Moore's wise and profound insight. In the discussion of longer time scales and the influence of technology on social development, people should give the same admiration and surprise to Soviet economist Kondratyev and his long wave theory. Although Kondratyev was 46 years old when he was shot as a political prisoner by the Soviet Union in 1938, the long wave theory he founded has so far been able to explain well from the British Industrial Revolution to the present 200 years or so. The profound influence of social structure.
In short, the longwave theory believes that the innovation of the dominant technology, especially its geographical spread and its penetration in other fields, will have a profound impact on the economy, society and even the entire social structure. It will be a long time from the innovation of the leading technology to the final impact on the social structure. The organic whole made up of such technical, scientific, economic, political and cultural subsystems is called long wave. The long wave formed by the new dominant technology in the proliferation will gradually replace the original long wave and become the dominant force in social development. Society is moving forward with waves of waves.
Over the past 200 years, the five leading technologies marked by hydraulic power, steam engine, electric power, internal combustion engine, and information technology have left the cotton, iron, and hydraulic eras for the history of human society, railways, steam engines, and mechanized eras, steel and heavy industry. In the era of electrification, the era of oil, automobiles, motorization and mass production, and the era of information and communication technologies.
The long wave of information and communication technology can still be subdivided into the mainframe era dominated by IBM 360 mainframes in the 1960s and the PC era started by IBM-PC. The next era should be a new era represented by mobile Internet and cloud computing.
The PC era created two giant companies, Microsoft and Intel. Microsoft’s market capitalization has long been the top of the technology company, and Apple, which launched Apple’s personal computer in 1977, has long been lingering. Jobs who returned to Apple revitalized Apple with iPods, iPhones and iPads instead of iMacs, desktops and servers.
In May 2010, Apple surpassed Microsoft to become the technology company with the highest market value and should be regarded as a landmark event in the new era. Today, the market value of Apple is $330 billion, while Microsoft is worth $228.6 billion (as of February 17, 2011).
Saying goodbye to the PC era does not mean that the PC will disappear, but that the PC has surrendered the crown that affects the first force. It is a miracle that PCs can maintain their absolute influence for such a long period of time as new technologies emerge in an ever-changing and ever-changing world.
The proliferation process of the new long wave is actually an abandonment of the long-wave established industrial clusters, market patterns, business models, and even corporate strategy. For example, the scale-based production of the PC industry based on standards is the inheritance and development of the large-scale production of the automotive industry. Of course, it is more abandoned.
Apple and the sudden emergence of ARM are certainly worthy of attention, but the transformation of the existing IT giants seems more interesting, because companies want to become a century-old shop, and the premise of becoming a century-old shop is constantly adapting to changes in society. Change is eternal, so transformation is inevitable. If not, IBM is still doing card punchers today, Nokia is distributing timber, and Samsung is selling saltfish.
Today, multinationals such as IBM, Microsoft, Intel, HP, Oracle, and Dell are all in transition.
In these 30 years, people have felt the magical power of Moore's Law and also lamented Gordon Moore's wise and profound insight. In the discussion of longer time scales and the influence of technology on social development, people should give the same admiration and surprise to Soviet economist Kondratyev and his long wave theory. Although Kondratyev was 46 years old when he was shot as a political prisoner by the Soviet Union in 1938, the long wave theory he founded has so far been able to explain well from the British Industrial Revolution to the present 200 years or so. The profound influence of social structure.
In short, the longwave theory believes that the innovation of the dominant technology, especially its geographical spread and its penetration in other fields, will have a profound impact on the economy, society and even the entire social structure. It will be a long time from the innovation of the leading technology to the final impact on the social structure. The organic whole made up of such technical, scientific, economic, political and cultural subsystems is called long wave. The long wave formed by the new dominant technology in the proliferation will gradually replace the original long wave and become the dominant force in social development. Society is moving forward with waves of waves.
Over the past 200 years, the five leading technologies marked by hydraulic power, steam engine, electric power, internal combustion engine, and information technology have left the cotton, iron, and hydraulic eras for the history of human society, railways, steam engines, and mechanized eras, steel and heavy industry. In the era of electrification, the era of oil, automobiles, motorization and mass production, and the era of information and communication technologies.
The long wave of information and communication technology can still be subdivided into the mainframe era dominated by IBM 360 mainframes in the 1960s and the PC era started by IBM-PC. The next era should be a new era represented by mobile Internet and cloud computing.
The PC era created two giant companies, Microsoft and Intel. Microsoft’s market capitalization has long been the top of the technology company, and Apple, which launched Apple’s personal computer in 1977, has long been lingering. Jobs who returned to Apple revitalized Apple with iPods, iPhones and iPads instead of iMacs, desktops and servers.
In May 2010, Apple surpassed Microsoft to become the technology company with the highest market value and should be regarded as a landmark event in the new era. Today, the market value of Apple is $330 billion, while Microsoft is worth $228.6 billion (as of February 17, 2011).
Saying goodbye to the PC era does not mean that the PC will disappear, but that the PC has surrendered the crown that affects the first force. It is a miracle that PCs can maintain their absolute influence for such a long period of time as new technologies emerge in an ever-changing and ever-changing world.
The proliferation process of the new long wave is actually an abandonment of the long-wave established industrial clusters, market patterns, business models, and even corporate strategy. For example, the scale-based production of the PC industry based on standards is the inheritance and development of the large-scale production of the automotive industry. Of course, it is more abandoned.
Apple and the sudden emergence of ARM are certainly worthy of attention, but the transformation of the existing IT giants seems more interesting, because companies want to become a century-old shop, and the premise of becoming a century-old shop is constantly adapting to changes in society. Change is eternal, so transformation is inevitable. If not, IBM is still doing card punchers today, Nokia is distributing timber, and Samsung is selling saltfish.
Today, multinationals such as IBM, Microsoft, Intel, HP, Oracle, and Dell are all in transition.
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