There are still doubts about the sustainable development of China's photovoltaic industry. Will the 2012 tragedy be repeated?

Although China's photovoltaic industry is already the world's largest market leader in both manufacturing and power plant installations, the sustainable development of China's photovoltaic industry is obviously still in doubt.

Although China's photovoltaic industry is already the world's largest market leader in terms of both manufacturing and power plant installations, the sustainable development of China's photovoltaic industry is obviously still in doubt.

In the manufacturing industry, although the outcome of the new round of “double reverse” in the United States has settled, India is gaining momentum and ready to go. Both of these countries are China’s trade deficit countries. Therefore, from a large game perspective, China does not have much tools for bargaining.

In photovoltaic applications, despite the fact that the installed capacity of the domestic market is indeed very fast, the reference to the power generation capacity—the number of hours of equipment use—is not at all a level with the United States.

According to the data released by the U.S. Department of Energy, in 2016, the output of photovoltaic power plants in the United States was approximately 58 billion kilowatt-hours. Corresponding to this, as of that year, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power was about 28 GW. In contrast, as of 2016, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power plants in China is approximately This is 77GW, which is more than double the United States, but the annual power generation is only 66.2 billion kilowatt-hours, and the equipment utilization hours are roughly equivalent to 50% of the United States.

If we consider the "double reverse" factor, it is more advantageous for China that the price of components is relatively cheap, but such disadvantages as high financing costs, low electricity generation, and arrears in tariff subsidies cannot be ignored.

The United States and India successively

Recently, the US Department of Commerce made a final ruling on the third anti-subsidy administrative reexamination of China's PV products. Chinese companies were ruled to have a countervailing duty rate of 17.14%-18.3%.

Compared with the US and European anti-doubles in 2012, this “double anti-dumpling” does not seem to have caused much concern and controversy in the industry. In addition to the strong demand in the domestic market and emerging markets, it is estimated that companies in the industry have already become accustomed to this.

However, what should attract the attention of the industry is that, compared to 2012, the main protagonist of the "double opposition" has not only the United States, but another main character has been changed from the EU to India. Recently there are rumors that India will also launch a dual anti-China survey of photovoltaic products.

According to the data from the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products, from the perspective of China's export of photovoltaic modules in the first four months of 2017, the Asian market has accounted for about 77% of China's exports of photovoltaic modules. Among them, India has become China's largest export market for photovoltaic modules, a significant increase of 84%, accounting for 41.8%.

According to reports from Forbes, according to India's solar energy development plan, by 2022, the country's installed photovoltaic capacity will reach 100 GW. Correspondingly, in the next five years, the Indian market demand will bring more than US$40 billion in revenue for PV module companies.

The above report also quoted India's local PV module companies' statement that the import prices of Chinese products are roughly 8%-10% lower than those of local companies, but this is based on government subsidies, lower financing costs, and industrial protectionism. .

Judging from the large trade pattern, the bilateral trade volume between China and India was 71.5 billion yuan, but India's imports to China were 61.3 billion US dollars and exports 10.2 billion US dollars, which led to India's trade deficit with China reached 51.1 billion US dollars.

Larger power generation capacity difference

In addition to the manufacturing industry's external demand environment that has repeated the same mistakes as in 2012, compared with the United States, China's photovoltaic power plant power generation efficiency also has a large gap.

The same is reported from Forbes. Thanks to the sound of photovoltaic power plants, the U.S. Energy Agency, the main energy statistics agency in the United States, has begun to incorporate relevant information on distributed photovoltaic power plants into the statistical scope.

According to the U.S. Department of Energy, in 2016, the smaller distributed power plants had a power generation of 19.467 billion kWh, which is expected to reach 25.4 billion kWh in 2017, and this number will increase further to 32.9 billion in 2018; and In comparison, the power generation of large-scale power plants is approximately twice that of small-scale power plants, and it is expected to reach 50.8 billion kWh in 2017.

Even if we do not consider that some of the new power stations added in 2016 did not generate electricity throughout the year, the average utilization hours of U.S. photovoltaic power stations also reached an astonishing 2200 hours.

In contrast, according to China's statistics, the best PV power stations in the western provinces have slightly more than 1,500 hours of utilization, and about 1200 hours in the east and mid-east, and even less than 1,000 hours in some areas.

The data also shows that in the case of small-scale distributed power plants in the United States, about half belong to the roof of residents, and the industrial and commercial roofs only account for 8% and 32% respectively. In terms of regional distribution, 41% of small-scale distributed power plants are located in California, and the other three major regions include New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Arizona.

Will 2012 repeat itself?

In 2012, it was against the backdrop of the “double opposition” in Europe and the United States that China’s PV industry experienced strong cold winters. The industry’s enterprises suffered losses, many well-known companies collapsed, went bankrupt, and even entrepreneurs jumped and fled.

Subsequently, the crisis was eased in the domestic market and the start-up of emerging markets such as Asia, and the industry began to recover. In particular, the domestic market has leapt to the world's largest installed market in just over a year, and continues to this day. It has won valuable time and space for the Chinese PV industry as a whole from a dangerous turnaround and steady development.

However, the over-speed development of four years and the disorderly layout of the market have also overdrawn the future of the domestic market to some extent. In addition, the persistent problems in industries such as consumption problems and subsidies arrears have been followed and the macro background of weak electricity demand has caused the development mode of the rapid expansion of the domestic market's high-speed equipment support industry to become increasingly difficult to sustain.

Taken together, at this time, although the global PV market pattern has been different, and emerging markets have been blooming all over the world, its demand is obviously difficult to support the industry's existing production capacity. Once the two major international markets of the United States and India have “doubled” in turns and then interacted with the shrinkage of the domestic market, it will not be impossible for China’s photovoltaic industry to experience a “2012” repeat.

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