The trend of manufacturing transfer has a great relationship with the future of the country. There have been four large-scale manufacturing migrations around the world, and innovation is an important driver of the manufacturing boom. Currently, the biggest reality facing manufacturing upgrades and migration is the decline in total factor productivity.
It is widely believed that there have been four large-scale manufacturing migrations around the world:
For the first time in the early 20th century, the UK transferred some of its “overcapacity†to the United States;
The second time in the 1950s, the United States shifted traditional industries such as steel and textile to the defeated countries of Japan and Germany;
For the third time in the 1960s and 1970s, Japan and Germany transferred labor-intensive processing industries such as light industry and textile to Asian “four little dragons†and some Latin American countries;
For the fourth time in the early 1980s, developed countries such as Europe, the United States and Japan and the newly-developed industrialized countries such as Asia’s “four little dragons†shifted labor-intensive industries and low-tech and high-consumption industries to developing countries. Therefore, China has been in China for more than 30 years. It has gradually become the largest ground and beneficiary of the third world industrial transfer.
Professional institutions such as McKinsey and the Boston Consulting Group, as well as various economists and media, analyze the global manufacturing transfer from the perspective of “cost structure†(including comprehensive costs such as manpower, land, energy, and institutional transaction costs). It is judged whether the future manufacturing industry will flow to low-cost countries such as India and Vietnam, or return to Europe and the United States from China. The important driving role of innovation factors in the global manufacturing migration process has not received sufficient attention.
The process of the United States to undertake global capacity transfer and realize the rise of manufacturing industry is very long. Even before and after 1850, the United States already has 7 of the world's 10 largest industrial enterprises, and does not mean that the United States truly becomes a manufacturing power. In the industrial and technological competition, until the 1920s, the US manufacturing industry was completely on the top of the undisputed world, which was mainly due to the comprehensive innovation of the United States on the manufacturing and product side.
In the early 20th century, the United States, flashing great inventions and great companies, Ford's T-car and Cadillac's electronic starter opened the era of human car, Warner Bros.'s "Jazz Singer" led the prosperity of sound movies, stainless steel and Artificial gum reshapes the US manufacturing industry, and telephone and electrification have escalated the US industrial infrastructure.
In particular, the large-scale promotion of production lines and large-scale mass production, in addition to the ability to dilute fixed costs, has also led a large number of engineers to gather together in technology research and development, which has greatly promoted technological innovation. At that time, the organization of the British factory was relatively traditional. Small and medium-sized workshops were the favorite of British society, but such enterprises could not achieve scale economy and system research and development innovation.
By the 1920s, the gap between the UK and the US in the manufacturing sector was huge. According to official data at the time, the US’s R&D expenditure accounted for 2.5% of the national output, compared with 2% in the UK in the same period. The US civil engineer accounted for 13% of the total employed population, significantly ahead of the UK. %. In 1929, the three pillar industries of the British economy were railway shipping, tobacco and alcohol, and textiles. The top three dominant industries in the United States were agricultural equipment and engineering machinery, vehicles and aircraft, steel and non-ferrous metals. The United Kingdom, an industrial power that is vying for global competition, has indulged in relying on tobacco and alcohol to survive.
After the end of the Second World War, the United States gave priority to the development of traditional industries such as steel and textile light industry in Germany and Japan in implementing industrial plans to revive Europe and Japan. However, Germany and Japan are reluctant to accept this industrial arrangement. If they passively accept the transfer of low-end manufacturing, they will forever lose to the United States in future industrial competition. Since then, Germany and Japan have not only focused on the development of high-value export industries such as automobiles, machinery and electronics, but more importantly, they have undertaken global manufacturing transfer with an efficient and complete national industrial collaboration system.
Why are Germany and Japan able to have the most powerful SME group in the world? Germany calls this the "invisible champion company", which Japan calls "the tiny world's top companies." The industrial structure of Germany and Japan is becoming more and more refined. Many companies have only studied one type of parts for decades, only one product, which is world-famous and has very good benefits. The products they manufacture are based on the unique technology that they have tempered based on their own market. These “invisible champion companies†do not pursue to be big, but strive to become the “single enterprise†with some kind of world first. So far, many high-end manufacturing industries in China have not greatly adopted the key materials and core components of Germany and Japan, such as aviation glass, chips, bearings, optoelectronic products, etc., and their competitiveness will be greatly reduced.
Germany and Japan are leading the world in basic industrial technology, which is a major foundation for the two countries to maintain a leading position in the global manufacturing industry. To give two examples, China's rare earth reserves are the world's number one, but lack of technology to turn it into a material. These materials technologies have been developed with decades of accumulation. These materials can be nanoscale and placed in mobile phone chips. These require specialized machine tools, and these things are not available in the United States, but in Germany and Japan.
Semiconductors are called "information food", and advanced lithography machines are used to manufacture semiconductor chips. 70% of the world's semiconductor lithography machines are made in Japan, and Germany supplies the most important optical components. The lithography machine is the most sophisticated, critical and expensive equipment of all the machines that humans can manufacture so far. When lithography is performed on the chip, the positioning accuracy is 0.01 micron, which is equivalent to one hundred thousandth of the hair.
In the process of shifting manufacturing capacity to the Asia-Pacific region, Taiwan and South Korea have played an important role. Among them, Taiwan is good at OEM and South Korea is stronger than industry chain integration. However, don't ignore the role of innovation. Taiwan's semiconductor manufacturing level is world-class, Hon Hai Precision (the mainland is called Foxconn) assembled almost all Apple iPhones, iPads, TSMC, MediaTek is a world-class giant in the field of chip manufacturing.
Beginning in the early 1990s, designed by US companies, Taiwan is responsible for foundry fabs, with huge investments ranging from 4 inches, 6 inches, 8 inches to 12 inches now, from wafer fabrication to cutting, packaging, The test is done by different companies in Taiwan, forming an unprecedented huge industrial chain, accounting for more than half of the global chip manufacturing market share. At present, TSMC has already completed the 16-nanometer process. Huawei's Haisi and Spreadtrum on the mainland must use TSMC's process to enable the design of high-end mobile phone chips to be mass-produced.
The iPhone and iPad are just "lab products" in Apple, and can be turned into mass consumer goods. There is a big gap in the middle - whether anyone can produce this product on a large scale. It's not too difficult for a lab to design a product and then spend a long time producing a sample. However, large-scale manufacturing, and those who do not have a technical background to manufacture, this requires a very reasonable planning process, the design of the mold is very accurate. There are many patented technologies involved. These molds are designed by Hon Hai and are “cross-authorized†with Apple. That is to say, in order to achieve mass production of a product, it is necessary to use these patents in the production process.
Samsung Electronics is the backbone of Korea's manufacturing industry. Its international competitiveness is based on the “full industry chain†model, which is a full-scale investment in chips, flash memory, LCD panels, flat-panel TVs, and mobile phones. Samsung's "full industry chain" model is not only a cost advantage, but more importantly, technology accumulation and innovation breakthrough.
The “Full Industry Chain†model enables South Korea’s Samsung to gain an in-depth understanding of technology and achieve efficient technological innovation and product innovation. After successfully mastering the storage and non-storage chip technologies, Samsung Electronics has successively mastered core technologies such as TFT-LCD, PDP, organic light-emitting display (OLED), mobile chip and flash memory chip. These technologies are actually semiconductor technologies from the root. These semiconductor chip technologies are largely benefited from the previous mastery of memory chip technology, and it is much easier to expand to other chip technologies.
Mainland China really began to undertake the global manufacturing transfer, which should be after 2000. At present, well-known BAT (Baidu, Tencent, Alibaba), as well as hardware manufacturing related Haier, Lenovo, Huawei, ZTE, Xiaomi, Foxconn and other manufacturers and brands are gradually mature, China's manufacturing industry has formed a self-sufficient, can be overseas brands OEMs can also launch a huge system of their own products. This system was first referred to as the “red supply chain†in the UK’s Financial Times, published in September 2013. At present, the profit margin of China's manufacturing industry is still relatively low overall, but the system advantage has already formed.
The profit margin of many smart phones, home appliances and PC products exported by China is less than 5%. People take it for granted that 95% of profits are earned by others. Entrepreneurs are worried all the time, workers are exhausted and the country consumes resources. Leave pollution, and finally only earn a little money from it. Many people have not figured out that this profit margin is precisely behind China's strong industrial system and market system.
In addition to the introduction of some core and high-end electronic components, 95% of the enterprises are required to pay workers a certain amount of wages, pay a certain amount of factory rent, pay a certain amount of water and electricity, and pay a certain amount of taxes and fees. Pay a few commissions to the agent, pay a few yuan for the logistics cost, and pay the accessory dealer a few yuan... This is the largest part of the cost of the product.
After that, the cost will not disappear without any reason, only the RMB will be transferred from some people to others. Accessories suppliers need to supply accessories, and no doubt need their own labor, management, factory rent, water and electricity, logistics, warehousing, etc.; power supply bureaus need power supply, power station construction, coal mining, power equipment manufacturing; logistics company To provide efficient logistics, you need a vehicle, you need a driver, you need to pay for the highway; then the next step is to build a road, you need reinforced concrete, you need... the surface profit rate is less than 5%, and the bones need the whole country. Strong support for raw material industry, energy industry, infrastructure, logistics network, supporting industry and market system.
The reliability and speed of the manufacturing industry is more important than the price. Out of stock definitely brings more losses than the high price. Depending on China's investment in large and complete supply chains and infrastructure, Chinese suppliers appear to be more rapid and more reliable in foreign companies.
For the manufacturing powerhouses such as Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea, the "red supply chain" is a system that is also a friend. Without it, many emerging products such as the iPhone may not be available in a short time, nor will it be the current price. However, China's own products launched through this system are also speed, flexibility, low cost and some ideas, making it difficult for traditional industrial powers to compete in certain markets because they lack this system and conditions.
In today's world, the biggest reality facing the upgrading and migration of manufacturing is the decline in “all-factor productivityâ€. The media and economists pay more attention to changes in domestic labor conditions, such as the implementation of the “five insurance and one gold†system, the increase in hot money, etc., which led to the rise in wages and prices, as well as the replacement of market and industrial structure, resulting in the gradual loss of the early Chinese mainland. Cost advantage. The "factor productivity" is more concerned about relative changes. For example, in the past 10 years since 2006, the domestic labor cost has increased by nearly five times. This does not mean that the cost competitiveness is inevitably weakened. If the degree of automation and organizational efficiency increase even more. .
In the past, we used to view most of Latin America, Eastern Europe, and Asia as low-cost regions, while the United States, Western Europe, and Japan were considered high-cost regions. Nowadays, this is an outdated world view. The subtle changes in wages, technical efficiency, energy costs, interest rates and exchange rates, and other factors year after year have quietly and greatly affected the global manufacturing cost competitiveness. "Map.
In the past ten years, global factor prices have risen to varying degrees, but the figures are not the key. What is important is whether it is linked to performance. Is the rise in factor prices reasonable compared with profits? Regrettably, the decline in “all-factor productivity†has led to (and even continues to lead to) pessimistic returns on manufacturing investment. Coupled with the glass wall between technological innovation and market returns, global manufacturing will continue to face pessimistic prospects.
Today, the mainstream American society has paid less attention to competition from China. It believes that it is impossible for China to win with a new generation of manufacturing, and it has gradually formed a complete account of "why China cannot have the next generation of manufacturing." With the maturity of technologies such as intelligent robots and 3D printing, China has no advantage, and multinational companies are trying to move their high value-added manufacturing industries back to the US and Europe.
China has launched the “Made in China 2025†10-year plan to achieve efficient and reliable smart manufacturing with advanced manufacturing technologies such as robotics, 3D printing and industrial internet. At the same time, China has launched another national program, “Internet Plusâ€, which seeks to combine mobile Internet, cloud computing, big data and the Internet of Things with modern manufacturing. Even if the transformation and upgrading of China's manufacturing industry in hardware is successfully realized, it still faces three major practical challenges:
The first challenge: robots in Europe, the United States, and China consume the same amount of electricity, and work equally as instructions, without complaining or joining a union. Is it necessary for European and American industrial companies to transport raw materials and electronic components from all over the world to China, let the robots complete the assembly of the finished products, and then transport them back to the United States? This has no economic significance at all. European and American companies can produce locally at almost the same cost and remove the transportation link.
The second challenge: Most of China's robots are not produced domestically, and even if they are assembled domestically, they still rely heavily on importing core components from foreign countries.
The third challenge: European and American industrial companies have had a lot of difficulty recruiting technical talents in China because of the management and communication skills required by advanced manufacturing and the ability to operate factories based on complex information. The lack of professional and technical personnel is already the weakness of China's promotion of advanced manufacturing and service industries. What's more, China's manufacturing industry has faced unconventional competitive pressures from its main rivals.
The Chinese economy, which is dominated by manufacturing, has reached its most critical moment, and every step taken now has an extremely profound impact on the future.
Under the influence of factors such as the application of intelligent manufacturing technology and the change in the comprehensive cost of manufacturing, the global manufacturing layout has gradually adjusted: the manufacturing production of multinational companies has shown an accelerated trend of return to developed countries. At the same time, global manufacturing is accelerating to Southeast Asia, South Asia, Africa, etc. Transfer of cheaper regions. The former is the cost dividend derived from technological innovation in developed countries, and the latter is the attractive advantage of low-cost countries with cheap labor. China's manufacturing industry, which is sandwiched between the two, is losing its labor cost advantage, while technology and industrial upgrading face no small challenge.
Global manufacturing trends
China is already seeking to reduce the overall cost of Chinese enterprises, namely factor costs, transaction costs and institutional costs, and to keep more manufacturing capacity in China as much as possible. At the same time, the national innovation system is stepping up construction. The change in cost structure is not the core of the problem, because the real driving force behind the global manufacturing migration is technological innovation and industrial upgrading.
In the past, traditional industrial powers generally favored outsourcing manufacturing to low-cost regions. This is not to withdraw from manufacturing. On the contrary, it is precisely to strengthen the control of the industrial chain. Google's acquisition of Motorola, high-profile entry into the robotics field and the development of autonomous vehicles, Google's vision is that Internet technology can continue to be integrated into the manufacturing industry, can establish a dominant position. Once all aspects of manufacturing are taken over by "cloud computing," it will have enough influence and even control over the manufacturing industry.
The trend of manufacturing transfer has a great relationship with the country's future and destiny. The United States has now withdrawn from many manufacturing sectors, but has not withdrawn from the industrial chain, but has specialized in standards and technology. Japan is also following this path, and technologies such as 3D, 4k, and quantum dots are all developed by Japan and carried forward by Chinese companies. Today, Sharp, Panasonic, Toshiba and other transitional medical equipment, energy, Tesla's TV is provided by Panasonic.
Cutting-edge technology and key innovations remain the main battlegrounds of traditional industrial powers, and Chinese manufacturers still need to track their technical routes. China’s “demographic dividend†is disappearing, and the “technical dividend†has just begun. China's manufacturing industry as a whole still lacks technology and capital accumulation, and the original innovation faces high costs, and the risks are unpredictable.
The real driving force for industrial innovation is the market. China's manufacturing industry still needs to start from small things and small innovations. Many small innovations may inadvertently shake the big market. China's manufacturing industry can fully rely on a unique market and supplier system to create advantages in the global manufacturing process and master the complete ecosystem from manufacturing materials to sales channels.
The recent Boston Consulting Group's Global Manufacturing Cost Competitiveness Index shows that the relative costs of manufacturing in the world's economies have changed, prompting many companies to rethink the assumptions of procurement strategies over the past few decades and the location of future development capabilities. In the process of formulating the index, the think tank observed that cost competitiveness has increased in many economies, while other economies have declined relatively. Through this index, think tanks discover four distinct modes of change in manufacturing cost competitiveness:
1. Faced with pressure: Several economies that have been considered to be low-cost manufacturing bases in the past have been under pressure from a significant reduction in cost advantages since 2004 due to a combination of factors. For example, it is estimated that the cost advantage of China's factory manufacturing industry has been reduced to less than 5%; Brazil's manufacturing costs are higher than Western Europe; Poland, the Czech Republic and Russia are also relatively weak in cost competitiveness, and their current manufacturing cost levels It is comparable to the United States, only a few percentage points lower than the United Kingdom and Spain.
2. Continue to weaken: In the past decade, the competitiveness of economies with relatively high manufacturing costs has continued to weaken, and their manufacturing costs are 16%-30% higher than those of the United States. The main reasons are low productivity growth and increased energy costs. The economies that continue to weaken their competitiveness include Australia, Belgium, France, Italy, Sweden and Switzerland.
3. Stable: In the past decade, many economies have remained stable relative to US manufacturing cost competitiveness. In economies such as India and Indonesia, although wages have increased substantially, productivity has increased rapidly and currency depreciation has curbed costs. Compared to the dynamic balance between India and Indonesia, the cost drivers of all our analyses have remained relatively unchanged in the Netherlands and the UK. The cost competitiveness of these four economies makes them likely to be manufacturing leaders in their regions in the future.
4. Global stars: Compared with other top 25 exporting economies in the world, manufacturing costs in Mexico and the United States have increased more. These two economies are emerging as new stars in global manufacturing due to low wage growth rates, continued productivity growth, stable exchange rates, and huge energy cost advantages. The think tank estimates that the current average manufacturing cost per unit of cost in Mexico is lower than in China. Among the top 10 commodity exporters in the world, except China and South Korea, the manufacturing costs of other economies are higher than those of the United States.
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