It is reported that the new policy of subsidies for new energy vehicles has been signed by four ministries in the near future and is expected to be released in mid-December.
"The industrialization of electric vehicles must ultimately be completed by the market." On December 9, Chen Qingtai, former deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said at the "Sanya Finance and Economics International Forum."
Chen Qingtai said that the new energy auto industry at this time is still inseparable from the policy support, but what is more needed is the incentive, rebellion and screening of the market. All kinds of situations show that the driving force for development has reached a period of policy-driven and market-driven and policy-driven transformation.
Since last year, with the new energy vehicle exceeding the sales and sales volume of 1.5%, China's electric vehicles have entered the growth period from the introduction period. Improving the technical level, improving the industrial chain, reducing production costs, and establishing independent brands are the core lines of growth.
In Chen Qingtai's view, the government's policy mix must generate long-term expectations and incorporate long-term strategies for related industries and enterprises; promote policies should leverage the market to explore and release the potential of the market; government policies should be stimulated and forced to play in both directions. The role does not distort the market and does not weaken competition; government policies do not interfere with the technical route, and the implementation of the policy does not lead to dependence on the government, but the timely decline of the role of the government.
Increase the slope
2016 is a year of recognition for new energy vehicles. Previously, the government introduced various forms of incentive policies to compensate for the lack of product technology maturity and initial high costs, and quickly launched the market.
"The new policy is still being signed." The 21st Century Business Herald reporters learned from various parties that the new energy auto subsidy new policy has come to the fore.
At present, the idea of ​​subsidy adjustment for outflows is to increase the technical threshold requirements for passenger vehicles, comprehensive adjustment of passenger vehicles, clear technical requirements for special vehicles, and subsidies for fuel cell vehicles. Moreover, the new national subsidy policy will have a larger decline than the previous version, and the retreat of some models will reach 60%.
This will lead to structural changes in the domestic new energy vehicle market. Among them, pure electric logistics vehicles will get more support, because the electric bus is more serious, the proportion is decreasing, the demand for ternary batteries will increase, becoming the two major development of new energy vehicle market. direction.
On December 2nd, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the fourth batch of “Recommended Models for Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehiclesâ€, and a total of 678 products were selected. In this batch of promotion catalogue, the proportion of passenger cars still reached 55%. Among the logistics models, 178 transport vehicles were selected, accounting for 26%.
"Domestic buses and logistics vehicles only account for about 10% of the total market consumption, but the mileage may exceed 90%, far greater than passenger cars, so it is necessary to combine policy guidance to identify market demand." December 11 On the day, Fang Jianhua, president of Guoxuan Hi-Tech, said in an interview with the 21st Century Business Herald that the development space for logistics vehicles is very large.
In addition, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology at the meeting on further improving the safety supervision and application of new energy vehicles showed that starting from January 1, 2017, the new application for the “New Energy Vehicle Promotion and Application Recommended Model Catalogue†uses a ternary battery bus. Third party test reports should be submitted at the same time.
This is also interpreted as a major positive development of the ternary lithium battery, that is, under the premise of the thermal runaway test and the thermal runaway extended test test, the ternary lithium battery bus can apply for the recommended catalogue, which will mark the “suspension of the ternary battery on the bus. The application of the regulations is expected to be lifted from January 1, 2017.
The battery is in urgent need of cost reduction
"The new energy auto industry actually has a tough day to go. It is also difficult in the next year and the next year. The future depends on everyone being able to reduce the cost." On December 7, Ningde era founder Zeng Yiqun at the Senior Engineers Lithium Conference It is said that the spring of power batteries and new energy vehicles is far from coming, and cost reduction has become the biggest pressure in the industry.
Driven by the demand for electric vehicles, in 2016, the total output value of lithium batteries reached 112 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.8%.
The output value of power battery increased by 53.9% compared with 2015. It was affected by the adjustment of subsidy policy. The output value was lower than the expected at the beginning of the year. The growth rate of energy storage output was 7.7%, but the volume was small and still in the gestation period.
At the same time, under the dual drive of policy and capital, the power battery capacity in 2016 reached 60GWh. The mainstream power battery factory is currently in the state of expansion, but due to the subsidy adjustment, ternary battery suspension into the market, fraudulent inventory check, power battery specification adjustment, etc., some enterprises expansion plans are stranded; in 2017, overcapacity, may start to hit the price War, the pressure to reduce costs increased.
The above indicates that in the market trend of power batteries, ternary lithium batteries are becoming a major trend. The output of ternary power battery accounted for 34%, up 11% year-on-year, mainly driven by the growth of passenger electric vehicles; the ternary bus will lift the ban to further promote the development of ternary batteries; and the national plan to reach 300Wh/kg energy density by 2020 The requirements must be achieved through new material systems and new battery technologies.
On November 22nd, the website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the “Regulations on Automotive Power Battery Industry (2017)†(hereinafter referred to as “Standard Conditionsâ€) for comments, stipulating that “the annual production capacity of lithium-ion power battery cells enterprises should not be less than 8 billion watt-hours. "This will increase the annual production capacity of lithium battery cells by 39 times. The current domestic battery manufacturers that meet the above requirements are only BYD and Ningde era. It is expected that the capacity of Guoxuan Hi-Tech will reach 80% of the requirements next year.
For power battery companies, to minimize costs, we must break the monopoly of the industrial chain, build a battery ladder recycling ecological chain, achieve large-scale production and manufacturing, on the basis of battery standardization, mass production.
Zeng Yiqun believes that there are five major demand markets for new energy vehicles in the future. It is expected that the price of lithium batteries will increase from next year, and the miniature electric vehicles that originally used lead-acid batteries will be replaced with lithium batteries. The market threshold for commercial vehicles and logistics vehicles is relatively low, and the time for vehicle verification is short. More companies will enter the new energy vehicle industry from the logistics vehicle field.
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