LED market will usher in the gloom after the winter

After years of policy encouragement and market cultivation, energy-saving lamps have replaced incandescent lamps as mainstream products in the lighting industry, and the lighting industry has entered the “energy saving lamp era” in an all-round way. This also means that the energy-saving lamp industry is becoming mature and the industry development is steadily increasing. In contrast, LED lighting belongs to the next generation of lighting products, is in the period of rapid development of the industry, the industry analysts, the lighting industry winter is approaching, after experiencing market integration, the future growth potential of the LED lighting market is visible, the prospects are worth the wait.

LED industry output will break 200 billion

Although the news of the owners of LED companies still ran from time to time, the total output value of the LED industry still achieved an increase of more than 30% this year. It is understood that by the end of this year, the total output value of the LED industry is expected to reach 205.9 billion yuan (2011 output value of 154 billion yuan), the number of enterprises in the domestic upstream and downstream industry chain has increased from 220 last year to 300, However, the polarization of the entire industry is serious. Some enterprises have achieved a growth rate of 200%. Some enterprises are facing the edge of elimination.

Industry cold winter is approaching

Has the LED industry already reached the bottom? According to speculation, January to February of next year will be the “coldest and most difficult” time point for the industry. He expects that there will be less than 30 epitaxial chip companies next year, and three domestic MOCVD equipment manufacturers will emerge, but there will be no product sales. The packaging plant will close down 20%, and the downstream display company will close down. The penetration rate of LED downlights and spotlights in the domestic market will exceed 30%, and LED lighting industry sales may reach 1 billion yuan.

Moreover, the industry's oversupply situation is still increasing. Zheng Tiemin, general manager of Shandong Inspur Huaguang Co., Ltd. pointed out that the LED industry has seen an oversupply in 2011. By 2012, there was a serious oversupply and a large number of companies restricted production, production, closure, closure, and even the phenomenon of boss running, which can be foreseen in the future. There will also be the phenomenon of shutting down production, reorganization of assets, mergers and acquisitions, and new projects.

Some entrepreneurs only pay attention to immediate interests. Some enterprises do not receive policy subsidies and preferential policies and go to expand production in other places because they see the urgency of attracting investment from foreign governments. All these factors have intensified the industry's supply exceeding demand.

The huge amount of investment that swarmed directly led to a price war. Wang Lianghai, vice president of Tongfang, pointed out that in the past few years, the investment in LED upstream chip area has been huge, the price has dropped to 30% in 2010, the performance index has doubled compared to 2010, and the average price in the packaging field has decreased compared with 2010. 40%, performance is also improving, but relatively slow, terminal application product prices are also falling, the original 300 yuan product with the current 200 yuan LED product basic performance is consistent.

In order to break through the current market, Zheng Tiemin believes that the implementation of product differentiation strategy can ease the pressure brought about by the price war, and should pay attention to research and development and production of high-end products and improve product quality. He also said that mergers and acquisitions between LED companies is also an important direction.

E-commerce channels have become increasingly valued by the industry

In scale expansion, the LED industry has also begun to focus on emerging channels. Traditional channels "burn too much money", and can not be successful and uncertain, e-commerce is a very good channel for the LED industry. In the traditional channels, products with a cost of 20 yuan cost almost 60 yuan to a chain sales terminal, which is 3 times the cost price. Even if a company opens its own store, the price is at least double the cost. If e-commerce is well controlled, use Online and offline cooperation is an opportunity for LED companies.

LED lighting market outlook is worth looking forward to

Green lighting has become the development trend of the lighting industry. Sunlight's micro-mercury energy-saving lamp projects and LED lighting product projects are in line with the general trend of green lighting industry development. Recently, the board of directors of Sunshine Lighting reviewed and approved the “Proposal on Partially Changed Investment Projects of Raised Capital”, which is intended to change the “Micromercury Environmental Protection and Energy Saving Lamp Industrialization Project”, which is one of the 2011 non-public offering equity investment projects, into "The annual output of 20 million (sets) LED lighting products industrialization project." The bill will be submitted to the general meeting of shareholders for consideration on Thursday.

Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a draft of the "China's Roadmap for Gradually Reducing the Hg Content of Fluorescent Lamps," requesting a gradual reduction in the mercury content of energy-saving lamps and a complete elimination of the liquid mercury production process. The threshold of energy-saving lamp industry has been improved. Some small-sized enterprises will have difficulty in completing the conversion of liquid mercury to solid mercury process due to limited capital and technical strength. The future production and order of fluorescent lamps will be concentrated in relatively mature large-scale factories. Concentration is expected to increase.

Some market analysts believe that Sunny Lighting began to switch to the solid mercury process years ago. Currently, all of the solid mercury production processes have been realized. In the medium to long term, the industrial concentration brought about by industry standard changes will increase, and the overall market share is expected to increase.