Since entering 2016, the topic of driverless cars has once again been ignited. In mid-March, Baidu, which entered the driverless car for less than two years, said it would conduct road tests in the United States. At the same time, Baidu announced the launch of driverless commercial vehicles in 2018. A few days ago, BMW, which was far away from the German headquarters, also showed the world a cool and unmanned concept car. At the same time, it announced its next century-old plan. As expected, the new technology car that subverted the traditional travel mode. It has become the focus of BMW's next long-term strategy.
According to the latest predictions from Boston Consulting, driverless cars will become a reality in 2025, 10 years later. By then, cars with semi-automatic driving will also reach market penetration of more than 12%. As for the global consumers and even the government departments in various regions, there is no doubt that they are as full of expectations as you are for the arrival of such a new travel era.
Driverless cars, technology companies take the lead
Existing industry players, traditional car manufacturers, tend to adopt a moderate and gradual strategy. They believe that fully automated vehicles can only be realized when the technology is mature enough and the social obstacles are completely eliminated. During this period, traditional car manufacturers follow established The way to automate the gradual marketization, first equipped with autopilot modules on high-end models.
Volvo is a classic. In July 2015, Volvo's new XC90 was launched. This SUV equipped with Volvo's self-developed Sensus intelligent in-vehicle interactive system realized the earliest commercial use of semi-automatic driving technology. BMW has applied several semi-automatic driving functions including steering assist and lane departure warning systems to its new 7 Series. Unlike traditional car manufacturers, technology companies and other new entrants in the industry have chosen a different path. Consistent with the culture of rapid prototyping in technology companies, most non-traditional participants want to test autonomous driving techniques as quickly as possible and quickly improve through testing.
As the largest search engine company in China and the United States, Baidu and Google are also advancing in the development of driverless cars. Relevant technological progress has become one of the focuses in the field of automotive technology, but the specific information in this area has never been exposed. It also made the outside world more curious and speculative about this. Many of the technologies used in self-driving cars are patented, such as software algorithms that control automation. These patented technologies are largely the core trade secrets of autonomous car developers. According to Baidu’s previous introduction, the core technology of Baidu’s driverless car is “Baidu Auto Brainâ€, which includes four modules: high-precision map, positioning, perception, intelligent decision-making and control.
At the same time, some technologies, such as high-precision maps, car-to-car and vehicle-to-base communication technologies, require different companies and organizations to work together to solve them. The continuous advancement of these technologies has made driverlessness a little closer to reality. This is the case with radar sensor technology called "eyes" for driverless technology.
From Google's 3D maps to Google's driverless cars, to Baidu's driverless cars, and even unmanned aircraft mapping, as the "eyes" of driverless technology, the company from Silicon Valley, Velodyne LiDAR, has become the most Silicon Valley technology due to its lidar sensor technology. One of the companies that fire. It can be said that Velodyne's lidar sensing technology directly promotes the development of driverless. Understanding how this technology works is important for understanding the development of driverless technology.
In 2004, DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) organized a top-of-the-line competition in the unmanned technology industry. This competition is like an Olympic event in the athletes' circle.
Velodyne founder and inventor David Hall used stereo vision technology to participate in the 2004-2005 DARPA Super Challenge. He then recognized the limitations of stereo vision, turned to laser ranging technology, and developed the HDL-64 solid-state hybrid laser. Radar sensor. In the interview with Business School, Velodyne Asia Pacific Director Weng Yi said that Nokia first installed the Velodyne LiDAR 3D laser radar in the silver rotating cylinder above the Street View car to collect 3D graphics. Since then, Google Street View has also adopted This technology.
Google's first self-driving car prototype used Velodyne's 64-level laser sensor. The HDL-64 is priced at up to $80,000 (about RMB 520,000) and weighs dozens of kilograms. It is difficult to popularize. With the increasing role of small unmanned remote-controlled aircraft in map mapping, there is a demand for lightweight sensors in the market. Velodyne's 16-wire laser sensor Puck, which was launched in April 2015, weighs only 570 grams, not far from the 500 grams required for drones. Domestic drones are already trying to mount this sensor for mapping.
The cost of 16-level laser technology is 10 times lower than that of 64, and the size is only the size of the ice hockey. Weng Yi specially mentioned that it is because the advent of this product marks the substantial progress of the unmanned technology, it is low cost. The way to solve the problem of the car "eyes". Baidu did not know the technology of unmanned vehicles when it invested in artificial intelligence a few years ago. Now Baidu unmanned vehicles have completed road test in Beijing, and the automatic driving speed is 100 km/h. This is Baidu’s announcement since September 2014. The first transcript that was handed over after the driverless field.
Baidu had experienced severe haze during the test of driverless cars. Even when the building was vaguely blurred, the unmanned vehicle was in good condition and successfully executed the right turn, left turn, turn around, slow down, and change lanes. Overtaking, overtaking, traffic flow, and squatting. The test has a top speed of 62 miles per hour. The test drive route starts at Baidu Beijing headquarters near Zhongguancun Science and Technology Park in Haidian District, enters the G7 highway, passes through the Fifth Ring Road and the Olympic Park, and finally returns to Baidu headquarters. The driving route is 18.6 miles long. "Eyes" - Velodyne Lidar completed its fine-grained operations such as recognizing lanes, recognizing distances from other vehicles, and other vehicle speeds during Baidu's automatic driving.
Baidu’s chief scientist Wu Enda has revealed recently that Baidu will begin testing its own research and development of driverless cars in the United States in 2016. Google has never given a definite timeline for when a driverless car will be available. Maybe three years, maybe five years, or even ten years? According to Google’s previous words, everything is possible.
Unmanned commercial, consumers are willing to pay
“In New York, the total cost per mile of passengers is about $1 per mile for public transportation, $0.3 for passengers, $0.7 for government subsidies, $1.2 per mile for private cars, and 2.8 for miles per taxi. US dollar. What is the per capita cost of driverless taxis in the future? The answer is that it is likely to be much cheaper than existing taxis. It is conceivable that once unmanned taxis appear and become popular, American traditional taxis, together with Taxi drivers may all disappear, and in other cities, such as Beijing, China, the same is true,†said Thomas Dauner, senior partner and managing director of Boston Consulting Group and the head of Boston's consulting global automotive business.
What is even more unexpected is that although the development of unmanned technology is still in its infancy, the public has a strong impression and expectation for unmanned driving. In 2014, Boston Consulting conducted a survey of US consumers, with 55% of consumers expressing a willingness to purchase cars with autonomous driving capabilities and 44% of consumers expressing a willingness to purchase fully automated vehicles. In the past, in the face of similar problems, consumers are more willing to spend a hundred dollars on a comfortable back cushion instead of spending five thousand for a new car function. In Europe and Japan, Boston Consulting also received similar data. 70% of luxury car owners and 47% of ordinary car owners are willing to buy semi-autonomous vehicles; 61% of luxury car owners are willing to buy fully-automobiles.
Boston Consulting Forecast
1. By 2025, complete driverless technology will be realized. At that time, the semi-automatic market penetration rate is 12.4%, and this business volume is 42 billion US dollars, and this figure is only for the technical system, not the entire automobile.
2. By 2035, the penetration rate of fully automatic and semi-automatic vehicles will reach 25%.
Compared with Boston's relatively conservative forecast, Baidu recently announced that commercial driverless cars will be launched as early as 2018. Unmanned technology frees hands, and it is expected to greatly reduce the traffic accident rate in the future. From consumers to the government, there is no reason not to support the arrival of driverless technology. Such an inevitable trend, as well as the power and continuous achievements of technology companies in the past two years, forced traditional automakers to break the conservative concept, no longer just obsessed with the traditional internal combustion engine, but will be unmanned. Driving technology refers to the height of strategy.
Just two years ago, traditional manufacturers, especially European and American automakers, were not valued for driverless cars. However, after 2015, people felt a sudden change in style. Take BMW as an example. When Mercedes-Benz launched its unmanned concept car in early 2015, BMW has not heard of any big moves in this regard. However, on March 7, 2016, BMW released the BMW VISION NEXT 100, an unmanned concept car. At the same time, BMW also announced its “next 100-year†strategy to explain to people how the future will change the way the “Earth Man†travels.
At present, for BMW, the products with gesture control and smart key are gradually popularized. At the same time, in the future strategy of the BMW Group, technology and digitalization will become the main development direction of the daily life of the future group and even the entire human race. This is the key moment for the BMW Group to achieve automated driving. Today's BMW customers already have access to a range of semi-automated driving functions. For example, the new BMW 7 Series is already equipped with a steering assist system and a lane departure warning system. In the future, “pure driving pleasure†will have another meaning, that is, the use of automation to liberate the driver.
In addition, BMW plans to launch a driverless car around 2020, competing with technology giants such as Apple and Google in the field of driverless cars. BMW CEO Harald Kruger said that the car will be "revolutionary" and will increase individual mobility to an "unprecedented level." It is understood that this new car will focus on new forms of automatic driving and digital connection as well as electric drive systems. BMW's R&D director Klaus Froehlich said the car will compete with new products in the automotive industry rather than with other traditional car products. From the timetable of Baidu and BMW, 2020 may become the "singularity" of the arrival of driverless cars. As for the two camps of technology companies and traditional manufacturers, who can occupy the final leading position in this matchup, it is still too early to draw conclusions.
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